Why the BC Election Polls were so wrong!
But then again, one man got it right…
Leading up to the recent BC election I was reading a book by Nate Silver, “The Signal and the Noise – Why so many predictions fail – but some don’t. The book provides an excellent outline on a variety of prediction issues. After reading a good portion of the book and then seeing how badly the mainstream pollsters failed, it made wonder if they had obtained their results using outmoded methods. CEOs of the polling companies, when interviewed on TV, dodged and weaved as they tried to explain the inexplicable results. It seems their margin of error was something in the order of (+) or (-) 100%, 20 times out of 20.
Following the election I continued the book, then happened upon an article posted on the CBC BC News web site about one pollster, Dimitri Pantazopoulos, who got it (the BC election) almost bang on. Working behind the scenes for the Liberal Party, he confidently projected a Liberal win of at least 48 seats. An outline of his work was covered in a number of other media reports.
Mr.Pantazopoulos had been hired early on in the election to give the Liberals a realistic assessment of their chances as they were not thrilled (an understatement) with the mainstream polls whose results (predicting an NDP landslide) seemed to fly in the face of what they were hearing on the ground. Pantazopoulos’s information, which provided a much different story, was shared only among party insiders and candidates involved in close contests (where most of the polling took place).
Two weeks out from election day, the party machine kicked into overdrive and drove hard to the finish line. This included several hard hitting ads targeting Dix and the NDP party platform.
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March 2012 Tim Hortons Morning Posts
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March 2012 Posts
March 17, 2012 Rogers Communications: Deceptive Business Practice
Rogers is a big company, do they need to stoop to such
shoddy business practices?
Call Centre in Ohio
May 1, 2012 UPDATE: I spoke to a Rogers Outlet representative I know and he confirmed the following marketing practice is commonplace…
March 17, 2012 Comment
A few days back I was nearly caught short during a Rogers Communications Customer Satisfaction Survey being conducted by a Call Centre in Ohio. Although I don’t usually take these calls near dinner, I was in a bubbly mood so decided to let the woman ask away.
After a few questions about my degree of satisfaction with Rogers, she went on to ask if it was OK to check and see if any savings could be found in our account. Why not? She then spent considerable time (20 minutes or so) and I was feeling bad for taking up so much of her time trying to find so little in savings. She stated: “no problem, Rogers is here to provide you with the best service we can” or words to that effect.
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My Tim Horton’s Morning Posts: February 2012
February 2012 Posts
February 29, 2012 Bill S-7, another Dangerous Bill to amend the Criminal Code, is back on the table
2012 Update to the Martin Niemoller quote below: “Since 2001, they began to chip away at civil liberties by makng changes aimed at ‘certain’ minorities in our society…I didn’t speak out because I was not one of those minorities.”
Over the past few days the ‘Robocall’ incident has dominated the news. Today, the National Post devoted a full 2.5 pages to the subject as they worked to play down the story suggesting it was all a tempest in a teapot. A few days earlier the same paper devoted only a few column inches on page 5, about the Conservatives resurrecting Bill S-7. I do not recall any radio or TV reports on the S-7 subject. What then is Bill S-7 and why do I, a retired police officer, express concern?
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My Tim Hortons Morning Posts January 2012
Tim Hortons Posts for January 2012
January 31, 2012 The Threat of Social Media
In the 21 Century, the greatest threats Facebook, Twitter, other social media and blog sites present, is not the invasion of the privacy of individuals using those sites, but as a tool to ‘out’ the efforts of governments and giant corporations attempting to keep their dubious dealings secret and, in the worst case, of dictators trying to control entire populations. This was no better demonstrated than in the events surrounding the Arab Spring which, to this day, continues to build across the Middle East.
Social media presents an unparalleled opportunity for individuals to co-ordinate and communicate their concerns about abuses by government and corporations that once held information tightly in the vaults of secretive government agencies and in the board rooms of corporations. Insider information and leaks today can be broadcast around the world in a matter of seconds. Wikileads is a good example.
Over the coming months and years you will see governments and corporations around the world working hand in hand to pass laws that control information they consider proprietary to their vested interests. The recent attempt to close down social media sites because information was passed along that was considered proprietary, is a perfect example. It did not take long before the US Government backed off once the backlash began.
Also, you likely watched as governments around the world become apoplectic during after the most recent WikiLeaks release. They are still pursuing Julian Assange with a vengence and arranged to have several organizations cut off Wikileaks services. Yesterday seveal hackers turned the tables on some spy agencies and hacked into some very sensitive conversations about those very hackers.
Worry not about what you post (other than that which may come back to haunt you at some future date) being accessed by some inept individual or pervert or even a government, worry about your ability to freely communicate your idea’s with others. Except to fight against network posts or internet displays that cross the bounds of common decency or are clearly racist, fight censorship at every turn.
January 31, 2012 Hackers, Snoopers and Peepers
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My Tim Hortons Morning Posts Most Recent
More Tim Horton’s Timbits
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LINK HERE
Dear Reader,
Many Canadians consider a Tim Horton’s morning coffee to be one the five main food groups. Yours truly is one of those individuals. I am now at the age where I feel slightly anxious whenever someone, even inadvertently, has the nerve to sit at my favourite table where I usually enjoy my morning cuppa and paper read if none of the other regulars happen to show up.
Each week I will add a few short posts about articles of local, national and international interest, as well as other miscellaneous items that have piqued my interest. It seems there is never a shortage of items upon which I might wish to pass judgment.
Warning: The contents of this post do not reflect the views of my good wife, who sometimes jerks my chain just in time to modify a post she thinks might offend. Since Lynn has engrossed herself full time with her travel consulting work, I am now running without the luxury of an Editor and Copy Reader. Any spelling errors and rough grammatical structure you encounter will most certainly be the product of my own hand.
I try to proof and correct but that is never easy when looking at ones own writing which is considered to be without fault and universally interesting. Bear with me, I am trying to overcome my shortcomings but the list is so long it will take years. If you wish to jerk my chain (occasionally!), that is fine.
Harold McNeill
Victoria, British Columbia
Travels from the end of March through April have taken me away from writing posts in this section. Hopefully, by the end of May, things will be back to normal.
June: It seems that other stories and spring/summer commitments will keep me busy until next fall. Perhaps at that time I will return to regular posts in this section.
September 2012
September 30, 2012 Privacy on Facebook
In recent weeks, there have been many posts on Facebook and other social media sites about privacy. By definition, these sites are public. People post notes and pictures about themselves that lets everyone take a peek into their personal and private lives. What they had for breakfast, how they slept last night (sometimes even with whom), trouble going to the bathroom, a nasty little sore in a tender area, are just a few of the intimate details that periodically appear.
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Birch Lake: A New Begining – Chapter 2 of 4
Photo (Collage of Mom’s Photos): Family and friends in Saskatchewan provided a strong draw, but earning a living on the farm was becoming increasingly difficult.
Link to Next Post: A Place in the Sun
Link to Last Post: Blizzard of Forty-One
Link to Family Stories Index
Community Dance: March 1941
It would be the first time since Harold was born that the new mom and her husband had attended a dance at the Meadstead Community Hall. In those days almost everyone in the family attended the dance including kids and babies. Because their were no carriages or baby baskets, makeshift items were used to carry the baby, diapers, bottles, etc. Laura used an old suitcase for this purpose. She would just pop open the top and she had a ready made bed for her little boy.
The full story, including this Chapter, is now in book form;
This Book is available from
Kindle Direct Publishing
Book 2 -Trails North an and West: The Pioneer Way 1824-2024 is now available from Kindle Direct Publishing (KDP) You can search by book title or author name. A preview of the first seventeen pages is provided (link on bottom left on the KDP order page). The preview also includes the Table of Contents.
Note: When ordering four or fewer books, they will be printed and shipped within Canada. An order of 5 or more books may be printed and shipped from the United States. Postage is included in the purchase price when ordering from either country.
If you are thinking of sending books as gifts to others, you may consider having those books mailed directly to the recipient(s), by Amazon, at time of ordering. In this way, you would avoid Canada Post fees which currently run about $20.00 (plus tax) for one or two books, if enclosed in a single mailer.
For more background information on the story, go to the lead story on this blog.
Cheers,
Harold
Link to Next Post: A Place in the Sun
Link to Last Post: Blizzard of Forty-One
Link to Family Stories Index
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Treat Your Tradespersons Fairly
By far the majority of tradespersons are hard working, honest people who will do a days work for an agreed upon price. Some employers however, some who can well afford the rate, will turn around and try to stiff the tradesperson.
The 911 operator received a mid-afternoon call from hysterical woman screaming that she had just been assaulted. The barely coherent woman gave her address and two cars were dispatched Code 3. A record search revealed no previous calls to the residence, a large, upscale home in south Oak Bay.
Another patrol officer and I happened to be nearby – we responded immediately. Although there were no previous to calls to the residence, we approached as “high risk” not knowing what might have transpired. After parking several houses back, we did a quick scan of the street then covered each other as we approached the house. There was no one in the yard, no car in the driveway and the curtains were open. I approached the front door while my partner covered from the side away from the window.
About half way up the sidewalk, the door suddenly swung open and a woman in her mid sixties came rushing out. She was completely covered from head to toe in a black substance. Her appearance reminded me of a farmer having worked all day in a hot, dry, dusty field. The whites of her blinking eyes and the flash of her teeth stood in stark contrast to the black that covered her face. Although extremely upset, we were able to ascertain the suspect had fled the scene driving a white, windowless mini van with a ladder attached to the top.
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